The Russia Defense Ministry said today it has reasons to believe that Turkey is more likely planning a military invasion in neighboring Syria in light of the recent development on the borders.
Russian reconnaissance planes have been recently scanning the Syria-Turkey borders and recorded ‘concealed preparations’ conducted by the Turkish army.
Turkey’s Erdogan, nowadays, is living his worst nightmares since his proxies have been driven out of their last strongholds in Northern latakia. The Turkish-backed Jaysh Al-Fateh (mostly made up of Jabhet al-Nusra fighters) is considerably losing ground to the Syrian Army and its allies in northern and southern Aleppo.
Today, the western-backed Kurdish forces and one of Erdogan’s bitter enemies known as YPG (Kurdish Protection Units) have captured Ziyarah to the north of the predominately Shia villages of Nubl and al-Zahraa, which have just breathed life yesterday when the Syrian Army and allied forces lifted a 3-year siege imposed by Islamist groups.
In short, Erdogan’s schemes in northern Syria have almost entirely been shattered thanks to the Russian aerial campaign which has assisted not only the Syrian Army, but also the YPG, seize control of more grounds.
Essentially, Turkey might be the biggest loser from the Russian military presence in Syria. It’s illegal and insanely lucrative oil trade with the terror group Islamic State has also been ruined as Russian bombers burned hundreds of oil tanks while on their way to Turkey.
Well, the man has all the reasons to invade Syria and harass the Russians, but is he mad or stupid enough to do this?
Personally, I do not think so. Simply because such a foolery will definitely spark the WWIII, which neither Russia nor the West is willing to engage in.
Some might highlight the fact that Turkey, after all, is a NATO member and will probably have the organization’s military support as stated in the treaty. However, informed Turkish sources reported an increasing ‘sense’, both on the Turkish government and public level, that no support will be provided in case of any military showdown between Turkey and Russia in Syria or anywhere else.
This, according to the sources, is triggered by a variety of reasons including the Islamism of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the newly-signed Iran nuclear deal and subsequent lift of sanctions, in which Western powers are panting to normalize relations with Iran at the cost of Turkey.
Erdogan knows well that his country is lagging behind Russia militarily, economically and historically. After all, it is Russia that finished off the Ottoman Empire in the last century; and Erdogan, for sure, is well informed about his country’s near history.